Abstract

The rapid global expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) is a key pillar of transport decarbonization but also intensifies pressures on critical material supply, battery manufacturing, and end-of-life (EOL) waste management. While lithium-ion battery (LIB) recycling has been widely studied, most existing assessments focus on mature markets and rely on deterministic approaches, limiting their applicability to emerging economies under uncertainty. This study develops an integrated framework to evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of a circular LIB value chain. The framework combines a hybrid EV adoption forecast, Weibull-based EOL battery estimation, chemistry-resolved mass balance, and techno-economic and environmental simulation using the EverBatt platform, complemented by Monte Carlo risk analysis. The methodology is applied to Chile as a representative case of an emerging EV market. Results indicate rapid EV adoption, reaching 50% market share by 2036 and generating more than 80 kt of EOL batteries annually by 2045. Hydrometallurgical recycling reduces the production cost of NMC 811 cells by approximately 46% and lowers cost volatility by 37%. Environmental benefits include reductions of 24.4% in fossil fuel use, 78% in sulfur oxide emissions, and 22.3% in greenhouse gas emissions, at the expense of increased water consumption. The proposed 80 kt yr-1 facility shows robust financial performance, with median NPV between $589 and $653 million and IRR of 56-69%. The framework provides a transferable tool to support investment and policy decisions toward circular and low-carbon battery value chains.