Abstract

This study evaluates the role and cost dynamics of hydrogen in the energy transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050. Using the H2RES long-term optimisation tool, the research explores scenarios involving electrolyser technologies, hydrogen storage, and fuel cells, considering increasing hydrogen demand in hard-to-abate sectors. By optimising the system under both perfect foresight and myopic planning approaches, results indicate that alkaline electrolysers dominate deployment, while solid-oxide electrolysers gain traction in high-efficiency, lowcost scenarios. Fuel cells play a negligible role, except for solid oxide fuel cells under optimistic assumptions. Electrolyser capacity is projected to reach 40-70 GW, with the levelized cost of hydrogen dropping from & euro;2.37/kg in 2030 to & euro;1.49-& euro;2.05/kg by 2050. Myopic approach results in up to 25% higher hydrogen costs due to less efficient infrastructure development. This work highlights that hydrogen's economic viability depends on integrated system planning and should not be assessed in isolation from broader energy system configurations.