Abstract

A conceptual model was developed to assess current and future heat impacts on 29 medium-sized Chilean cities. This model integrates qualitative and quantitative data, allowing for the analysis of various scenarios based on both current and projected information. The model considers the combined effects of maximum temperature increases, the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and heat waves, creating a comprehensive heat impact index. Findings indicated that 83% of medium-sized Chilean cities were experiencing heat impacts at the beginning of the analyzed period (year 2020), and that between 2020 and 2060, an additional 7% increased, reaching 90% by the end of the period, only three cities remaining unaffected by 2060. The model also tracks changes over time, revealing how climate-sensitive planning policies can reduce heat-affected populations due to sustained temperature increases, especially related to the thermal insulation of homes and the increase in green areas per inhabitant. Our conceptual model can be used for urban resilience planning in Chile, especially under the Climate Change Law (N degrees 21.455), which mandates local climate action plans for sectoral, regional and municipal levels. In addition, the model can be easily adapted and used for other countries and cities suffering heat impacts on population. Future work will aim to extend the study to include major metropolitan areas.