Abstract

Wind energy has experienced rapid development over the past two decades, positioning it as one of the renewable energy sources with the largest share in the global energy mix. However, power grids are increasingly exposed to the intrinsic wind variability. This paper evaluates future changes in wind power and energy generation over South America between 2030 and 2099 and the influence of different climate modulators of 100 m wind variability, as a continuation of previous work focused on the historical period 1980-2014. We considered projections from eight CMIP6 climate models under the moderate SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our results show significant increases in wind power density of more than 30% by 2099 over northeastern Brazil associated primarily with a positive trend in the South Atlantic Anticyclone intensity, whilst a decrease up to -20% is projected over the Patagonia region associated with a positive trend in the Patagonia-Antarctic pattern. These changes equate to an increase in wind power generation up to 18% by 2069 and 37.6% by 2099 in northeastern Brazil, whilst a decrease up to -33.6% by 2069 and -33.8% by 2099 is projected for Patagonia. This information is of crucial relevance for system planning and risk assessment in current and future wind projects in South America.