Abstract

Forest loss is particularly relevant in mosaic landscapes where rural population relies on land. While existing studies have identified its socioeconomic drivers, they often rely on cross-sectional data. This study addresses this gap by analyzing surveys applied to the same sample of landowners in 2016 and 2021, combined with satellite imagery. We analyzed two periods: 2013-2016 (economic expansion, P1), and 2017-2020 (economic contraction, P2) in southern Chile. Our findings reveal a shift in the role of self-employment (off-farm income) concerning forest loss. In P1 it contributed to reducing forest loss, and the opposite in P2. This suggests that, under adverse economic conditions, self-employment may not act as a safety net but rather as an insufficient/uncertain source of income, intensifying households' dependence on ecosystems. In an economic crisis, as was the COVID-19 pandemic, self-employment may lead to greater pressure on forests to compensate for income's uncertainty. Moreover, in both periods, farms with an active forest management plan were more likely to experience forest loss, which questions the effectiveness of this legal tool to promote sustainable practices. These results show that specific socioeconomic factors may have a dual effect on forest loss, depending on the prevailing macroeconomic context, which should be included in forest policy by strengthening the monitoring capacities of the forest service, and focusing the economic incentives of the Law N degrees 20.283 on more vulnerable landowners during economic contraction periods. Creating a countercyclical fund to promote sustainable forest management, in periods when off-farm incomes are more scarce/uncertain is also relevant.