Abstract

(1) Background: Rubus geoides Sm., a native species of southern Patagonia, faces increasing threats due to climate change and anthropogenic land-use changes. Historically widespread, its distribution has become restricted by overgrazing, urban expansion, extractive industries, and direct harvesting from natural populations driven by interest in its nutraceutical potential since the first European settlements. (2) Methods: To assess its resilience and conservation prospects, we analyzed the morphological variability, genetic diversity, and population structure, complemented by species distribution modeling under past and future climate scenarios. (3) Results: Our findings reveal moderate genetic differentiation and private alleles in specific populations, alongside significant variation in flowering phenology. Paternity analysis indicates a tendency toward self-pollination, although this conclusion is constrained by the limited number of microsatellite markers employed. These results suggest post-glacial dispersal patterns and highlight the species' potential for expansion under certain climate scenarios. (4) Conclusions: This study provides critical insights for biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management, directly aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals SDG 15 (Life on Land). Indirectly, this study contributes to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by highlighting the importance of threatened species that hold value for human consumption and food security. Land-use changes, particularly mining and green hydrogen industry settlements, may represent stronger limitations to species expansion than climate change itself.