Abstract

Small, rainfall-dominated coastal watersheds are data scarce, and the effects of freshwater inflows from these watersheds on coastal fisheries are difficult to quantify. We analyze six fisheries across 117 landing sites and their relationship with freshwater inputs. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to evaluate freshwater inputs-fishery relationships. A sensitivity analysis across 72 combinations of model-selection criteria (R-2, explained deviance, smoother complexity, and statistical significance) was developed, and retained associations based on combined statistical performance and ecological interpretability were further analyzed. Detected associations occurred exclusively for streamflows exceeding a threshold magnitude (monthly median >0.4 m(3) s(-1) and P85 > 3 m(3) s(-1)) and the retained relationships were consistent with the ecology of the studied species. Our findings provide hydroecological reference points and time-lagged signals that can inform integrated management of river-coast small-scale fisheries, particularly in data-scarce regions.