Abstract

Agriculture faces critical challenges due to the increasing food demand and the scarcity of water resources caused by climate change. While there are various studies on water and land optimization in annual crops, there is a significant gap in research regarding the optimal allocation of these resources in fruit orchards considering long-term horizons. This study applies a nonlinear optimization model to a representative fruit production system in central Chile to evaluate resource allocation strategies aimed at maximizing net profit over the 2000-2020 period. The model optimizes land allocation and annual water distribution by integrating variables such as irrigation efficiency, operational costs, and labor requirements. Crop patterns corresponding to the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 were evaluated under total distribution efficiency scenarios of 90% and 70%. The results showed that a 90% efficiency reduces economic losses associated with water deficits, thereby improving the long-term economic viability and resource-use efficiency of the farm. The proposed optimal pattern increased profits by 32.7% compared to the 2000 pattern. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the pattern is robust against moderate variations in water availability (up to 20%), labor, and operational costs. However, reductions of 30% or more in water availability or drops of 50% in export prices require adjustments in crop distribution. Consequently, the framework provides a robust decision-support basis for optimizing long-term resource allocation strategies in perennial fruit systems.