Abstract

Spread of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) at the cage level was quantified using a subset of data from 23 Atlantic salmon Salmo salar farms located in southern Chile. Data collected from official surveillance activities were systematically organized to obtain detailed information on infectious salmon anemia (ISA) outbreaks. Descriptive statistics for outbreak duration, proportion of infected fish, and time to secondary infection were calculated to quantify the magnitude of ISAV incursions. Linear and multiple failure time (MFT) regression models were used to determine factors associated with the cage-level reproduction number (R-c) and hazard rate (HR) for recurrent events, respectively. In addition, the Knox test was used to assess if cage-to-cage transmissions were clustered in space and time. Findings suggest that within farms, ISA outbreaks, on average, lasted 30 wk (median = 26 wk, 95% CI = 24 to 37 wk) and affected 57.3% (95% CI = 47.7 to 67.0%) of susceptible cages. The median time to secondarily diagnosed cages was 23 d. Occurrence of clinical ISAV outbreaks was significantly associated with increased R-c, whereas increased HR was significantly associated with clinical outbreaks and with a large number of fish. Spatio-temporal analysis failed to identify clustering of cage cases, suggesting that within-farm ISAV spread is independent of the spatial location of the cages. Results presented here will help to better understand ISAV transmission, to improve the design of surveillance programs in Chile and other regions in which salmon are intensively farmed, and to examine the economic impact of ISAV and related management strategies on various cost and demand shifting factors.