Abstract

The objective of this contribution is to analyse long term scenarios for closed nuclear fuel cycles in a European context, including economical estimates as additional reference results. Some intermediate results of this study have already been published in Ref. [3.95]. The analysis of long term sustainability of nuclear energy should consider transition scenarios from the current open fuel cycle or partially closed one to fully closed fuel cycles based on advanced technologies. Such study is expected to elaborate various aspects of transition scenarios, such as time period required to reach material flow equilibrium, the recommended number and time frame of introduction of fuel cycle facilities, the storage of nuclear material and generated nuclear waste, among other things. Moreover, there is an interest to improve these studies with economic analyses, as a necessary input to evaluate the realistic viability of new strategies. This exercise analyses the transition from an existing LWR fleet to advanced fast reactors, taking also into account an intermediate stage of Generation III+ LWR deployment. It assumes that a representative number of EU Member States are involved, as in the PATEROS exercise [3.96]. The analysis of these fuel cycle scenarios is performed according to guidelines specified in the EU CP–ESFR [3.97] and ARCAS projects [3.98]. The complete case study can be found in Annex XXV on the CD-ROM accompanying this publication.