Abstract

Background: Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) has a mortality up to 35-40% and its treatment is mainly supportive. A variable to predict progression from mild to severe disease is unavailable. This study was performed in patients with documented infection by Andes orthohantavirus, and the aim was to find a simple variable to predict progression to moderate/severe HCPS in patients with mild disease at admission. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 175 patients between 2001 and 2018. Patients were categorized into mild, moderate, and severe disease according to organ failure and advanced support need at hospital admission (e.g., mechanical ventilation, vasopressors). Progression to moderate/severe disease was defined accordingly. Clinical and laboratory variables associated with progression were explored. Results: Forty patients with mild disease were identified; 14 of them progressed to moderate/severe disease. Only platelet count was different between those who progressed versus those that did not (37 (34-58) vs. 83 (64-177) K/mm(3), p < 0.001). A ROC curve analysis showed an AUC = 0.889 (0.78-1.0) p < 0.001, with a platelet count greater than 115K /mm(3) ruling out progression to moderate/severe disease. Conclusions: In patients with mild disease at presentation, platelet count could help to define priority of evacuation to tertiary care centers.