Abstract

Background: A major challenge of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is to better define "protective thresholds" to guide the global response. We aimed to characterize the longitudinal dynamics of the antibody responses in naturally infected individuals in Chile and compared them to humoral responses induced after immunization with CoronaVac-based on an inactivated whole virus -or the BNT162b2- based on mRNA-vaccines. We also contrasted them with the respective effectiveness and efficacy data available for both vaccines. Methods: We determined and compared the longitudinal neutralizing (nAb) and anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) antibody responses of 74 COVID-19 individuals (37 outpatient and 37 hospitalized) during the acute disease and convalescence. We also assessed the antibody boosting of 36 of these individuals who were immunized after convalescence with either the CoronaVac (n = 30) or the BNT162b2 (n = 6) vaccines. Antibody titres were also measured for 50 naïve individuals immunized with two doses of CoronaVac (n = 35) or BNT162b2 (n = 15) vaccines. The neutralizing level after vaccination was compared to those of convalescent individuals and the predicted efficacy was estimated. Findings: SARS-CoV-2 infection induced robust nAb and anti-N antibody responses lasting >9 months, but showing a rapid nAb decay. After convalescence, nAb titres were significantly boosted by vaccination with CoronaVac or BNT162b2. In naïve individuals, the calculated mean titre induced by two doses of CoronaVac or BNT162b2 was 0·2 times and 5.2 times, respectively, that of convalescent individuals, which has been proposed as threshold of protection. CoronaVac induced no or only modest anti-N antibody responses. Using two proposed logistic models, the predicted efficacy of BNT162b2 was estimated at 97%, in close agreement with phase 3 efficacy studies, while for CoronaVac it was ∼50% corresponding to the lowest range of clinical trials and below the real-life data from Chile (from February 2 through May 1, 2021 during the predominant circulation of the Gamma variant), where the estimated vaccine effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 was 62·8-64·6%.