Abstract

The environmental footprint of photovoltaic electricity is usually assessed using nominated power or life cycle energy output. If performance degradation is considered, a linear reduction in lifetime energy output is assumed. However, research has shown that the decrease in energy output over time does not necessarily follow a linear degradation pattern but can vary at different points in the module's lifetime. Further, photovoltaic modules follow different degradation patterns in different climate zones. In this study, we address the influence of different degradation aspects on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PV electricity. Firstly, we apply different non-linear degradation scenarios to evaluate the GHG emissions and show that the differences in GHG emissions in comparison to a linear degradation can be up to 6.0%. Secondly, we use the ERA5 dataset generated by the ECMWF to calculate location-dependent degradation rates and apply them to estimate the location-specific GHG emissions. Due to the reduction in lifetime energy output, there is a direct correlation between the calculated degradation rate and GHG emissions. Thirdly, we assess the impact of climate change on degradation rates and on the respective GHG emissions of photovoltaic electricity using different climate change scenarios. In a best-case scenario, the GHG emissions are estimated to increase by around 5% until the year 2100 and by around 105% by 2100 for a worst-case scenario.