Abstract

Dinophysis acuminata and D. acuta, which produce diarrheogenic toxins and pectenotoxins in southern Chile, display site-specific differences in interannual variability (2006 - 2018) in Reloncavi, Pitipalena and Puyuhuapi fjords (41 - 46 nbsp;S), Chilean Patagonia. Linear Models show decreasing trends in rainfall and river discharge. Latitudinal decreasing gradients in SST temperature and vertical salinity gradients were observed. A brackish water layer (FW salinity 11 psu), permanently present in Reloncavi, decreased in thickness with time in Pitipalena and was usually absent in Puyuhuapi, the only fjord where D. acuta reached bloom (> 10(3) cells L-1) densities every season. Dinophysis acuminata, associated with toxin profiles in shellfish that include only pectenotoxins, bloomed everywhere with a poleward increasing gradient. Absence of the FW layer provides a possible index of risk for D. acuta blooms. An apparent poleward shift of D. acuta populations, responsible for DSP outbreaks in Reloncavi in the 1970s, and the recent EU deregulation of pectenotoxins will have a positive impact on the mussel industry in Los Lagos Region. Changes to ongoing monitoring protocols to improve risk assessment capabilities are suggested.