Abstract

This study proposes a business model to obtain a successful off-road machinery retrofit using fuel cell technology by the means of evaluating scenarios using the net present value NPV of the project as a figure of merit. Given the uncertainty of some parameters, such as the price of diesel, cost of hydrogen, and cost of technology. It is proposed to carry out a Monte Carlo simulation to sensitize the business model. The results of the simulation declare that the possibility of achieving a positive NPV is increased from 54% considering present conditions to 99% considering projections for the year 2030. The prices of diesel and hydrogen condition the results in a more relevant manner and a price relationship is obtained between these two variables. Taxes could play a key role in the future, according to the results obtained in this study.