Abstract

In this study, we combined machine learning and remote sensing techniques to estimate the value of chlorophyll-a concentration in a freshwater ecosystem in the South American continent (lake in Southern Chile). In a previous study, nine artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms were tested to predict water quality data from measurements during monitoring campaigns. In this study, in addition to field data (Case A), meteorological variables (Case B) and satellite data (Case C) were used to predict chlorophyll-a in Lake Llanquihue. The models used were SARIMAX, LSTM, and RNN, all of which showed generally good statistics for the prediction of the chlorophyll-a variable. Model validation metrics showed that all three models effectively predicted chlorophyll as an indicator of the presence of algae in water bodies. Coefficient of determination values ranging from 0.64 to 0.93 were obtained, with the LSTM model showing the best statistics in any of the cases tested. The LSTM model generally performed well across most stations, with lower values for MSE (< 0.260 (mu g/L)2), RMSE (< 0.510 ug/L), MaxError (< 0.730 mu g/L), and MAE (< 0.442 mu g/L). This model, which combines machine learning and remote sensing techniques, is applicable to other Chilean and world lakes that have similar characteristics. In addition, it is a starting point for decision-makers in the protection and conservation of water resource quality.