Abstract

In this study, we employ in situ, meteorological, and remote sensing data to estimate chlorophyll-a concentration at different depths in a South American freshwater ecosystem, focusing specifically on a lake in southern Chile known as Lake Maihue. For our analysis, we explored four different scenarios using three deep learning and traditional statistical models. These scenarios involved using field data (Scenario 1), meteorological variables (Scenario 2), and satellite data (Scenarios 3.1 and 3.2) to predict chlorophyll-a levels in Lake Maihue at three different depths (0, 15, and 30 m). Our choice of models included SARIMAX, DGLM, and LSTM, all of which showed promising statistical performance in predicting chlorophyll-a concentrations in this lake. Validation metrics for these models indicated their effectiveness in predicting chlorophyll levels, which serve as valuable indicators of the presence of algae in the water body. The coefficient of determination values ranged from 0.30 to 0.98, with the DGLM model showing the most favorable statistics in all scenarios tested. It is worth noting that the LSTM model yielded comparatively lower metrics, mainly due to the limitations of the available training data. The models employed, which use traditional statistical and machine learning models and meteorological and remote sensing data, have great potential for application in lakes in Chile and the rest of the world with similar characteristics. In addition, these results constitute a fundamental resource for decision-makers involved in the protection and conservation of water resource quality.