Abstract

The current climate targets of most countries are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. This work emphasises how the gap between recent governmental policies for the energy transition and scientific findings may be jeopardising the fulfilment of the Paris Agreement. Concretely, Chile is used to identify the most significant global issues behind this gap and underline the importance of weighing in more insights from science. The analysis showed that the gap is mainly based on three critical problems in modelling tools for simulating long-term energy scenarios: (1) low temporal resolution in the modelling; (2) overly pessimistic and even outdated cost projection assumptions for key technologies, especially for solar photovoltaics; and, (3) key enabling technologies and infrastructures are not fully represented, such as decentralised solutions, Power-to-X for e-fuel production, and sector coupling. The study finalises by providing recommendations for energy decision-makers, such as policymakers, planners, and investors, to help speed up the needed energy transition that simultaneously tackles environmental, public health, and socioeconomic challenges.