Abstract

CONTEXT: Conventional planning approaches at the regional scale are often based on forecasts or citizen consultations that assume the extrapolation of variables or trends, which is insufficient in complex and highly uncertain environments. However, integrating System Thinking and Strategic Foresight can be particularly useful for understanding, imagining, and planning complex territorial systems. OBJECTIVE: This article develops a strategic scenario around the current and future dynamics of the agricultural system of La Araucanía, Chile. METHODS: The method was implemented in two stages: (1) analysis of system dynamics and selection of drivers of change, and (2) elaboration of the strategic scenario involving 14 experts. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The main results show how to integrate drivers of change and feedback and balance loops into the scenario narrative, which significantly improves the effectiveness of the visioning phase by combining systemic thinking techniques. In addition, three relevant methodological issues are identified for further discussion: (1) integration of system thinking and strategic foresight, (2) expert involvement, and (3) future planning of productive systems. SIGNIFICANCE: This study underscores the importance of integrating System Thinking and Strategic Foresight as a relevant option to support the transition towards sustainable productive systems. Integration allows the reorientation of strategies based on data and causal loop analysis. © 2024