Abstract

--- - BackgroundThe number of people with palliative care needs is projected to increase globally. Chile has recently introduced legislation for universal access to palliative care services for patients with severe and terminal illnesses, including non-cancer conditions. We aimed to estimate the number of people affected by serious health-related suffering and need for palliative care in Chile to 2050.MethodsWe used data on all deaths registered in Chile between 1997-2019 and population estimates for 1997-2050. We used Poisson regression to model past trends in causes of death adjusted by age, sex and population estimates, to project the number of deaths for each cause from 2021 to 2050. We applied the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief weights to these projections to identify decedents and non-decedents with palliative care needs.ResultsPopulation palliative care needs in Chile are projected to increase from 117 (95% CI 114 to 120) thousand people in 2021 to 209 (95% CI 198 to 223) thousand people in 2050, a 79% increase (IRR 1.79; 95% CI 1.78-1.80). This increase will be driven by non-cancer conditions, particularly dementia (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.85-2.95) and cardiovascular conditions (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.83-1.89). By 2050, 50% of those estimated to need palliative care will be non-decedents (not expected to die within a year).ConclusionsChile will experience a large increase in palliative care needs, particularly for people with dementia and other non-cancer conditions. Improved availability of high-quality services, expanded clinician training and new sustainable models of care are urgently required to ensure universal access to palliative care. - Estimating the number of people who experience serious health-related suffering and might benefit from palliative care need is key for service planning. This is particularly relevant in Chile, where a new law has been implemented that guarantees access to palliative care services for all patients with terminal conditions and severe diseases.We estimated the number of people who will experience serious health-related suffering and palliative care needs in Chile by 2050.The number of people with palliative care needs in Chile is going to almost double by 2050, mainly due to an increase in the number of people living and dying with dementia and non-cancer conditions.The projected increase in the number of people with palliative care needs highlights the need for enhancing availability of services, increase personnel training and new sustainable models of care, in particular for non-cancer conditions.