Abstract

An ordinary system of differential equations leading to a simulation model is propose as methodological approach to analysis the incidence of infectious-contagious diseases, in this case using SARS-CoV-2 virus as pathogenic model. The dynamics of the model are drive by the interaction between susceptible cells contemplating respiratory epithelial cells and viral infection mediated by two types of lysis response. To perform the simulations, values of some variables and parameters were selected from referenced sources, considering that previous reports suggested that the viral load in the lower respiratory tract might reach its peak in the second week after the beginning of disease symptoms. The scenarios described in the simulations evidence the performance of the cell lysis response from susceptible cells that have been infected. The recommend model shows that an excess response from both the original virus and the mutated virus leads to an increase in the approximate time to control viral infection within the organism.