Abstract

The projected increase in coastal risk requires a reevaluation of coastal risk reduction strategies. A multi-model approach is proposed to examine the variability of coastal storms influenced by climate change and El Ni & ntilde;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To this end, the historic coastal storm of August 8 2015, resulting from a local extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the central Chilean coast, was analyzed through the coupling of the WRF atmospheric model, Delft3D FM (D-FLOW and D-WAVE modules), and EOT20 astronomical tide model. The results show that the characteristics of local ETCs are susceptible to regional temperature gradients associated with climate change and ENSO. The coastal storm of August 8 2015, presented a decrease in wave height and counterclockwise rotation of wave direction along the Chilean coast under the climate change scenario. Meanwhile, the ENSO scenarios under cold conditions generated a ETC track's displacement toward the north, causing both an increase in wave height along the coast of the Antofagasta and Atacama regions and a decrease in wave height in the Valpara & iacute;so, O'Higgins, and Maule regions. Findings from this study emphasize the importance of considering dynamic design for coastal structures rather than traditional methods to adapt to changing storm patterns.