Abstract

Through a design st udy to develop a hypothetical lear ning trajectory for informal statistical inference (ISI), students in grades 3 and 4 (n=23) were i nt roduced to key concepts of var iabi l it y, repeat ed sampl i ng, and empi r ical sampl i ng distribution. The five-step trajectory, with a playful approach to the randomized two-coin toss experiment, included: obtaining samples; recogni zi ng uncer t ai nt y and expressi ng it wit h possibility language; contrasting predictions through repeated sampli ng; visuali zi ng and recogni zi ng variabilit y among samples; assigni ng levels of possibilities, consideri ng the empirical sampling distribution, when generalizing beyond the data. The results indicate that students at both grade levels can access ISI concepts, make informal inferences, and present sophisticated levels of ISI reasoning. © 2024, Comite Latinoamericano de Matematica Educativa. All rights reserved.