Abstract

Air toxics concentrations and health effects that come from different sources emission scenarios by linking Models-3/CMAQ and cancer risk assessment were predicted. The year 1999 was used to emissions inventory and the year 2003 for meteorological data and modeling performance. To demonstrate the system's effectiveness, this study was performed on priority mobile sources air toxics; benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and diesel particulate matter (DPM). The analysis was applied mainly to Nashville in the Southeastern US. Ten emissions scenarios were selected to compare the principal results. DPM posed a cancer risk that was 4.2 times higher than the combined total cancer risk from all other four air toxics. Those high cancer risk levels were due mainly to non-road sources (57.9%). For the on-road diesel fueled sources, the principal reductions were due to the DPM generated by heavy duty diesel vehicles. The main on-road reductions were due to the air toxics generated by gasoline light duty vehicles, principally benzene and 1,3-butadiene. Reducing ambient DPM concentrations would lead to improvement in human health more than other air toxics, indicating that better technologies and regulations must be applied to the mobile diesel engines, principally, over non-road diesel sources. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the AWMA's 99th Annual Conference and Exhibition (New Orleans, LA 6/20-23/2006).