Abstract

Despite the amount of research on the consequences of global warming on ecological systems, most studies examine the impact of increases in average temperature. However, there are few studies concerning the role of thermal variability on ecological processes. Based on insect thermal and population ecology, we propose a theoretical framework for organizing the study of the role that thermal mean and variability plays in individual performance, and how it may affect population dynamics. Starting with three predictions of global warming scenarios, we develop null models of the expected changes in individual physiological performance and population dynamics. Ecological consequences in each scenario may range from simple changes in performance to drastic changes in population fluctuations and geographic ranges. In particular, our null models show that potential changes in the intrinsic population growth rate (R-m) will depend on the interaction of mean temperature and thermal variability, and that the net effect of the interaction could be synergistic or antagonistic. To evaluate these null models, we fit performance curves to compiled data from the literature on measurements of R-m at several constant and fluctuating temperatures. The fitted models showed that several of the qualitative characteristics predicted by the null model may be found in the fitted curves. We expect that this framework will be useful as a guide to study the influence of thermal changes on the dynamics of natural populations.