The stochastic Mitra-Wan forestry model: risk neutral and risk averse cases

Piazza A.; Pagnoncelli, B.K.

Keywords: risk analysis, forestry,  dynamic programming,  coherent risk measures

Abstract

We extend the classic Mitra and Wan forestry model by assuming that prices follow a geometric Brownian motion. We move one step further in the model with stochastic prices and include risk aversion in the objective function. We prove that, as in the deterministic case, the optimal program is periodic both in the risk neutral and risk averse frameworks, when the bene t function is linear. We nd the optimal rotation ages in both stochastic cases and show that they may di er signi cantly from the deterministic rotation age. In addition, we show how the drift of the price process a ects the optimal rotation age and how the degree of risk aversion shortens it. We illustrate our ndings for an example of a biomass function and for di erent values of the model's parameters.

Más información

Título de la Revista: JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
Editorial: SPRINGER WIEN
Fecha de publicación: 2014
Idioma: English