Abstract

The high costs of the capital tie-up present in the key maintenance spare, that are characterized with a high economical value, a low turnover level and a big impact over production, this situation push the need for research and propose methodologies analysis that allow the optimization of different processes such as, forecasting, provisioning, spare parts management, optimal order quantity, and management decisions. In the present work, a methodological proposal based on risk analysis is developed, disaggregating the analysis in two main parts, the first related to success and failure probability estimation through the Poisson modeling; the second one related to the expected total cost, considering: storage cost, capital tie-up cost, repair cost, purchase order costs (normal and emergency), opportunity costs, and others. The contribution of this proposal is based on the key decision factors integrated in the analysis using analytical and mathematical processes, economical and probabilistic variables integration, besides providing information to the existing issues for this kind of industry, in example mining industry.