Abstract

Current technology can be described as a complex system composed of several subsystems, components and parts. Understanding how each of these elements evolves over time, decision makers can improve their strategies linking it with technology development. In this paper is presented a methodology that helps to identify technological elements that have a higher probability for development in the future according the evolution of their patents. The methodology is based on the integration of tools and models allowing to describe and analyze a system technology, additionally an indicator is proposed to identify the opportunity development in the future among the different elements for a specific time of interest. Six steps are proposed using a structured approach for the development and application of the methodology. Additionally, a case study was introduced to validate the effectiveness and usability of the methodology in a real case study.