Abstract

Energy models are used in the residential sector to determine the baseline energy consumption and to predict the future energy demand. They represent a useful tool for evaluating energy saving measures and the effects of different CO2 emission reduction strategies. However, the results of the modeling are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty which are mainly related to the input parameters. In this work, the uncertainty of seven residential energy models is analyzed. It is found that the cumulative uncertainty in residential energy models is large with a range of -24% to +54% in relation to the modeled mean value for a 90%tile confidence interval. The consequences of this variation on the accuracy of the predictions are discussed and measures to avoid erroneous assessment of energy efficiency measures suggested.