Abstract

The trend to increased temperatures would lead to great changes in the development cycle of plants and style of agriculture in a particular locality. The effect of the temperatures projected by the IPCC on the phenology of Vitis vinifera (L.) Gewuttzttaminet variety, in two areas of cold climate viticulture in southern Chile, was analyzed in this paper. A mathematical model was adjusted on phenology data and degree–days collected fot two years. The model obtained was turn with temperature data from current weather and those projected with the A2 and B2 scenatios for the period 2070–2100. The analysis of the results shows that local climate would present significant increases in the temperature sums (degree–days), reducing up to 17 d the bud–burst to flowering period and between 28–46 d the period of sprouting to harvest, in the most extreme scenario. Phenology is very sensitive to global warming scenatios and probable climate change. Characterizing its possible behaviot could serve as reference to define strategies for the future planning of a vineyard.