Abstract

The ongoing climate change is one of the main threats for Mediterranean-type Ecosystems (ME) worldwide. Central Chile includes ME such as Maulino forest (MF) with high endemism and fast land-use changes. Future climate models predict decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature for this ecosystem. MF are dominated by Nothofagus tree species (N. obliqua, N. glauca and N. alessandrii) and the expected effects of climate change are still unsolved. In order to assess these effects, on MF Nothofagus trees, along with five codominant tree species (Cryptocarya alba, Persea lingue, Gomortega keule, Laurelia sempervirens and Lomatia hirsuta) and seven understory ferns (from genera Adiantum, Blechnum, Cheilanthes and Pteris), we used niche modeling using BIOMOD R-package. The best specific model for determining the current and future distribution according to a conservative future climate scenario were determined considering each species’ dispersal constraints modeled using MIGCLIM Rpackage. Our results show that most of the dominant trees of MF (i.e. all Nothofagus and the half of the co-dominant tree species) are expected to reduce their habitat areas. The other half of co-dominant and all the ground ferns species showed increasing of their habitat area. Tree species considered as currently threatened (N. alessandrii, N. glauca and G. keule) are predicted to suffer the worst negative effects in terms of decreasing their habitat distribution (42%, 34% and 30% respectively). Thus, the remaining populations at the future scenario of the declining MF species, should receive additional long-term conservation efforts