Abstract

To estimate the mortality trends and spatial patterns for breast cancer in Cordoba (Argentina) in the period 1986-2006 taking into account age, calendar year, and birth cohort effects. Mortality data were provided by the Department of Statistics, Ministry of Health of Cordoba. Time trends in breast cancer mortality were analyzed using joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort models. A random-intercept log-linear model was also used to assess the spatial pattern. Breast cancer age standardized mortality rates rose by 1.4% (95% confidence interval 0.2-2.6) per year from 1986 to 1997, and thereafter both breast and total cancer rates declined [-2.5% (-4 to -1.0) and -1.6% (-2.3 to -0.8), respectively]. In age-specific analysis the decline was mainly at age 20-49 years [-2.4% (-4 to -0.9)]. Rates over most recent calendar years decreased, mainly in the most urbanized districts. Age-period-cohort models for Cordoba province and Cordoba Capital showed a favorable cohort effect for generations born after 1955. A decreasing trend in breast cancer mortality was found in Cordoba, especially at younger ages and in most urbanized areas. This could be attributed to some unidentified favorable factors in generations born after 1955. European Journal of Cancer Prevention 19: 94-99 (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams Wilkins.