Abstract

To verify the association between the incidence of DM and predictors, in a cohort of elderly people. Elderly people (>= 60 y) were analyzed, of both genders, participants of the SABE Survey, carried out in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2000 (n = 2,143) and 2006 (n = 1,115). The study variables were: DM; demographic (gender, age group, education level, companionship in the residence), nutritional status (risk for obesity, body obesity, and high abdominal fat), clinical (number of reported diseases), and lifestyle (alcohol consumption, smoking, intake of meat and fruit and vegetables). Multiple logistic regression (p 0.05) was used to verify the association between variables of this study, with the statistical software Stata/SE 10.1. In 2006, 914 subjects, survivors of 2000, were analyzed and 72 were identified as new cases of DM (7.7/1.000 person-years). It was found that body obesity (OR = 1.67, CI = 1.00 to 2.81) and high abdominal fat (OR = 2.32, CI = 1.47 to 3.67) were predictors of the incidence of DM in the elderly (p 0.000). It was concluded that body obesity and abdominal fat are the variables which contribute to the development of DM in the elderly.