Abstract

1. This study is the first attempt using Levins's Theory (loop analysis) in order to develop a sustainable management for the scallop, Argopecten purpuratus, fishery in Peru during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) and upwelling conditions. Based on this theoretical framework, it was possible to estimate the local stability for each of these model systems and to follow the qualitative changes of the variables in response to external factors. 2. Based on our results, we suggest the following management policies to be implemented: (1) during ENSO events the size at the first capture of the scallops should be > 70mm and (2) the increase in the number of fishermen during ENSO events must be prevented. Both measures increase the sustainability of fishery under ENSO and upwelling conditions. The ecological models predict that during ENSO and upwelling events, any management strategy to increase the recruitment of the scallop would not have a positive impact on the adult stock. 3. Finally, we suggest that more efforts must be focused on the development of extended ecosocial models, which incorporate further social and economic variables, increasing realism of the abstractions for this fishery activity. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.