Estimating the Local Time of Emergence of Climatic Variables Using an Unbiased Mapping of GCMs: An Application in Semiarid and Mediterranean Chile

Chadwick, Cristian; Gironas, Jorge; Vicuna, Sebastian; Meza, Francisco

Abstract

The time at which climate change signal can be clearly distinguished from noise is known as time of emergence (ToE) and is typically detected by a general circulation model (GCM) signal-to-noise ratio exceeding a certain threshold. ToE is commonly estimated at large scales from GCMs, although management decisions and adaptation strategies are implemented locally. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate ToE for both precipitation and temperature at local scales (i.e., river basin). The methodology considers local climatic conditions and unbiased GCM projections to estimate ToE by using the statistical power to find when the climate significantly differs from the historical one. The method suggests that ToE for temperature already occurred in three Chilean basins (Limari, Maipo, and Maule). However, in terms of precipitation, an earlier ToE is clearly identified for the Maule basin, indicating that risk assessment and adaptation measures should be implemented first in this basin.

Más información

Título según WOS: Estimating the Local Time of Emergence of Climatic Variables Using an Unbiased Mapping of GCMs: An Application in Semiarid and Mediterranean Chile
Título según SCOPUS: Estimating the local time of emergence of climatic variables using an unbiased mapping of GCMs: An application in semiarid and mediterranean Chile
Título de la Revista: JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
Volumen: 20
Número: 8
Editorial: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Fecha de publicación: 2019
Página de inicio: 1635
Página final: 1647
Idioma: English
DOI:

10.1175/JHM-D-19-0006.1

Notas: ISI, SCOPUS