Abstract

This study investigates the economic value of several simple forecasts of 3-month average eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). Two Chilean agricultural regions were selected and the value of information for the main crops is obtained using an integrated model. The value of perfect forecasts is computed along with several simply formulated imperfect seasonal forecasts using a classification of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The main relationships between the accuracy of the forecasts and the economic benefits that can be obtained by using sea surface temperature forecasts are presented. © 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.