Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century

Rojas M.; Lambert F.; Ramirez-Villegas J.; Challinor A.J.

Abstract

A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability-the time of emergence (TOE)-is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1-14% (3-31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.

Más información

Título según WOS: Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century
Título según SCOPUS: Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century
Título de la Revista: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volumen: 116
Número: 14
Editorial: NATL ACAD SCIENCES
Fecha de publicación: 2019
Página de inicio: 6673
Página final: 6678
Idioma: English
DOI:

10.1073/pnas.1811463116

Notas: ISI, SCOPUS