Abstract

The ongoing climate change could intensify endangerment of species with a restricted distribution and small population size, such as rare or endemic species. Magellanic tuco-tuco (Ctenomys magellanicus) is the southernmost Patagonian-Fueguian fossorial caviomorph rodent with a small distribution. This species has been categorized as vulnerable due to a strong population decline caused by over-exploitation and habitat loss and degradation produced by sheep grazing. This study aims to estimate suitable habitat distribution for C. magellanicus and predict suitable habitat distribution and potential range shifts under near-future climate change. For these, we used the method of maximum entropy distribution modeling, using 116 occurrence records from literature and, most importantly, direct species surveys. Seven climatic variables, associated with the water regime and with various aspects of the temperature variation between seasons of Patagonia, were the most important for the species' distribution. Under the major part of future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitat for C. magellanicus will likely be severely and negatively affected. Specifically, it would decrease mainly in its continental present distribution, with a drastic loss and fragmentation of suitable habitats. Our results can be useful for design evidence-based conservation and management policies.