Abstract

Peripheral urban sprawl configures new, extensive conurbations that transcend current administrative boundaries. Land use planning, supported by the analysis of future scenarios, is a guide to achieve sustainability in large metropolitan areas. To understand how urban sprawl is consuming natural and agricultural land, this paper analyzes land use changes in the metropolis of Quito, considering a combination of urban planning, natural conservation and risk areas. Using the Dyna-CLUE model we simulate spatial demands for future land uses by 2050, based on two growth scenarios: the trend scenario (unrestricted growth) and the regulated scenario, which considers two parameters-a government proposal for urban expansion areas and laws that protect natural areas. Both scenarios show how urban expansion consumes agricultural and natural areas. This expansion is backed by urban policies which do not sufficiently account for conservation areas nor for risk areas. Therefore, these simulations suggest that planning should follow a more holistic approach that explicitly considers urban growth beyond current administrative limits, in what we refer to as the New Metropolitan Area of Quito.