Abstract

This study shows a mathematical and statistical analysis to generate models based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression trees (RT) that allow a reliable prediction of the Mass Yield (MY) and the Higher Heating Value (HHV) of the final solid product obtained by Hydrothermal Carbonization, called hydrochar. MLR models were obtained for lignocellulosic and non-lignocellulosic biomass using a set of experimental data with more than 500 points collected from the literature. A new approach based on dimensionless groups of variables that describe the composition of biomass and operational conditions was used. The analysis for each equation indicated that the MY depends on the process conditions and the biomass composition, which is proportional to the Polarity Index (IP) and Reactive Index (IR) values. On the other hand, the severity factor (log Ro) and the initial calorific value (HHVo) were the main factors for the HHV, but also the raw biomass composition (IP and H/C ratio) had an opposite and equal significant effect. For these equations, the results indicated an adjusted R-2(R-a(2)) of about 0.90 and an average RMSE of 6% and 1.7 MJ/kg for MY and HHV, respectively.