Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the current and projected impacts of the three post-2015 development agendas on the underlying disaster risk drivers (UDRD): the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris COP21 Agreement. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on an ontological process, understood as an exhaustive analysis of the properties and relationships of an entity or subject of study. Findings The process characterized and linked the objectives proposed in the three agendas through the impact of the expected results on the underlying risk drivers. First, elements related to disaster risk within each agenda were identified. Then, in following the theory of change, a series of tools were used to identify domains of change, pathways, breakthroughs, and incremental outcomes that counteract the construction of disaster risk by acting on the underlying causes. It is essential that there be coherence, complementarity, and interdependence between the three agendas analyzed in order to transcend beyond the desired economic growth, and thus underpin true sustainable development by focusing on the UDRD. Originality/value Applying the theory of change constitutes a novel approach to identify the pathways or domains of change needed to integrate the three 2015 development agendas.