Abstract

Background: The increase of students in higher education means a more heterogeneous student body, complicating the identification of the variables that influence students' decisions to stay in or drop out of university. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of these variables on students' decisions by establishing specific groups of students based on performance. Method: A study was carried out with 2,970 first year university students from Portugal, using the decision tree technique. Results: Academic performance is confirmed as a determining variable in the decision to remain or drop out, allowing us to establish three groups (high, medium and low achievement), in which different types of variables act as mediators: sex, type of course (licenciatura [BA] or mestrado integrado), the fact of studying at the students' first-choice university or the mother's educational level. Conclusions: Without neglecting the weight of academic achievement as a priority variable, we must consider these secondary variables in the configuration of student groups in order to plan support policies to avoid higher-risk students dropping out.