Abstract

This article presents an analysis for the life cycle of technology through S-curves, as well as an exercise on technological surveillance applied to food drying. 13 nonlinear regression models were applied, inflection points for each model were calculated, and models were validated through T and P value calculations. Adjusted R2 value and Durbin Watson were also assessed. Best adjustment models were determined with a T value higher than 2 or lower than -2, and with a P value lower than 0.005. The models with best adjustment in articles were sigmoidal, logistic and Gompertz, which showed inflection point between the years 2009 and 2012. On the other hand, models with best adjustment on patents were sigmoidal and logistic, which resulted in inflection points in the year 2007. From an article and patent viewpoint, it can be said that fooddrying technology is at a maturity stage. Inflection points obtained provide a methodology for academics, researchers and entrepreneurs interested in food-drying technology. This allows them to identify the current state of technology, make better decisions regarding monitoring and investment strategies, and identify whether it is an appropriate time to exercise technological law mechanisms and intelectual property, such as patenting, software registration, and others. The sigmoidal model was a winning model in both articles and patents. This coincides with results obtained in two previous investigations on food-drying. It also agrees with results obtained in other S-curve studies regarding other technologies applied on food, where the sigmoidal model was reported as one of the winners.