Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; van der Schrier, Gerard; Jones, Philip D.; Barichivich, Jonathan; Briffa, Keith R.; Sheffield, Justin

Abstract

Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Nino/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Nina events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.

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Título según WOS: ID WOS:000333666600010 Not found in local WOS DB
Título de la Revista: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Volumen: 4
Número: 1
Editorial: NATURE PORTFOLIO
Fecha de publicación: 2014
Página de inicio: 17
Página final: 22
DOI:

10.1038/NCLIMATE2067

Notas: ISI