Abstract

The impact of climate change on sea salt aerosol production, dispersion, and fate over Europe is studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models driven by the climate scenario SRES A1B over two periods: 1990-2009 and 2040-2059. This study is focused mainly on European seas: Baltic, Black, North, and Mediterranean. The differences and similarities between the individual models' predictions of the impact on sea salt emission, concentration, and deposition due to changes in wind gusts and seawater temperature are analysed. The results show that the major driver for the sea salt flux changes will be the seawater temperature, as wind speed is projected to stay nearly the same. There are, however, substantial differences between the model predictions and their sensitivity to changing seawater temperature, which demonstrates substantial lack of current understanding of the sea salt flux predictions. Although seawater salinity changes are not evaluated in this study, sensitivity of sea salt aerosol production to salinity is similarly analysed, showing once more the differences between the different models. An assessment of the impact of sea salt aerosol on the radiative balance is presented.