Abstract

This paper estimates the long-term impact of journals aggregated in 24 different fields, using a simple logistic diffusion model, and relates the results to the current impact factor. Results show that while the current and the long-term impact factors have a high correlation coefficient, some fields are systematically slower-moving than others, as they often differ in the proportion of the overall impact through time that occurs in the short term. © Springer-Verlag/Akadémiai Kiadó 2006.