Abstract

A data assimilation framework was implemented with the objective of obtaining high-resolution retrospective snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates over several Andean study basins. The framework integrates Landsat fractional snow covered area (fSCA) images, a land surface and snow depletion model, and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis as a forcing data set. The outputs are SWE and fSCA fields (1985-2015) at a resolution of 90 m that are consistent with the observed depletion record. Verification using in-situ snow surveys showed significant improvements in the accuracy of the SWE estimates relative to forward model estimates, with increases in correlation (0.49-0.87) and reductions in root mean square error (0.316 m to 0.129 m) and mean error (20.221 m to 0.009 m). A sensitivity analysis showed that the framework is robust to variations in physiography, fSCA data availability and a priori precipitation biases. Results from the application to the headwater basin of the Aconcagua River showed how the forward model versus the fSCA-conditioned estimate resulted in different quantifications of the relationship between runoff and SWE, and different correlation patterns between pixel-wise SWE and ENSO. The illustrative results confirm the influence that ENSO has on snow accumulation for Andean basins draining into the Pacific, with ENSO explaining approximately 25% of the variability in near-peak (1 September) SWE values. Our results show how the assimilation of fSCA data results in a significant improvement upon MERRA-forced modeled SWE estimates, further increasing the utility of the MERRA data for high-resolution snow modeling applications.