Modeling the epidemiological impact of a preventive behavioral group

Cordova-Lepe, Fernando; Cabrera Hernadez, Maritza; Gutierrez-Jara, Juan Pablo

Abstract

Concerning health, experience indicates that in all human groups a percentage of individuals behave conscientiously when facing contagious diseases. This aware group responds with activities to prevent disease transmission and to minimize risk. In contrast, other individuals tend to behave with less engagement except in catastrophic cases. Assuming the theoretical and methodological framework provided by mathematical epidemiology, and based on a Susceptible–Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, we evaluated the factors of size and intensity of the behaviours in the aware group to determine the basic reproduction number. This number is the reduction in the number of secondary cases that would be produced by a first infectious individual. Additionally, we calculated the total and individual prevented prevalence for each aware individual for different parametric scenarios. Lastly, we suggest that distance and interpersonal contact should be included as factors associated to the potential of transmission.

Más información

Título de la Revista: MEDWAVE
Volumen: 18
Editorial: Medwave
Fecha de publicación: 2018
Idioma: Spanish