Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from thc Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in thc total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of thc disease. Scenario 3, considered thc most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that thc peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of "recovered" may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.