Abstract

Continuum mechanics assumptions in earth sciences are very useful for understanding and solving geo-physical problems. Particularly, in seismology, a relation between the elastic behavior during the rupture process and seismic hazard can be made. In fact, some analyses demonstrate the similarities between rock stress experiments in laboratory and related processes in the earth’s crust. For example, the micro-fracturing relations obtained experimentally in common rocks coincide with the behavior of earthquakes in a brittle medium. With the aim of deducing the relation between the fracture stress and the occurrence probabilities of an earthquake with magnitude over M∗ = 6.5 and M∗ = 8.0 , we present a statistical analysis that connects empirical relations between b value of Gutenberg - Richter relation, the ratio σ/σc - that represents the percentage of fracture stress of common rocks - and the occurrence probability of an earthquake of relevant magnitude. Using a seismic catalogue based on real recurrence of earthquakes and a compilation of historical events, probabilities were calculated using the Benjamin and Poisson equations for different temporal windows. With this methodology, we estimate the seismic hazard of Valparaíso Region in one year time. Results indicate that the Benjamin probability in the zone is 0.29. Similarly, the Poisson probability was 0.26. These results agree with the percentage of fracture stress, which value is 20%